US dollar weakens, metals rise across the board, with alumina and nickel-copper leading the gains; polysilicon rises over 5% [SMM midday review]

SMM July 10 Report:

Metal Market Update:

As of midday close, domestic base metals mostly rose. SHFE copper fell 0.67%, SHFE aluminum gained 0.85%, and SHFE nickel rose 0.11%. SHFE lead increased 0.17%, SHFE zinc rose 1.34%, and SHFE tin climbed 0.78%.

Additionally, the most-traded aluminum casting futures rose 0.45%, while alumina futures surged 2.63%. Lithium carbonate gained 0.12%, silicon metal rose 2.94%, and polysilicon futures extended gains for the 6th consecutive session with a 5.37% rise.

Ferrous metals series rose across the board: iron ore gained 2.17%, rebar and HRC both rose over 1%, and stainless steel advanced 0.55%. Coking coal and coke sector: coking coal rose 2.79%, coke rose 2.91%.

Overseas metals markets, as of 11:47, all LME metals rose: LME aluminum gained 0.46%, LME nickel rose 0.24%, LME zinc rose 0.51%, LME tin rose 0.41%, LME lead rose 0.17%, and LME copper rose 0.44%. Separately, according to CCTV News: On local time July 9, US President Trump announced on social media platform Truth Social that the US will impose 50% tariffs on imported copper starting August 1, 2025. COMEX copper rose 2.4% following this news.

Precious metals sector: As of 11:47, COMEX gold rose 0.16%, COMEX silver rose 0.12%. Domestically, SHFE gold gained 0.35%, while SHFE silver fell 0.19%.

As of midday close, the most-traded Europe container shipping futures rose 2.89% to 2,047.7 points.

Partial futures midday quotes as of 11:47 on July 10:

》July 10 SMM Metal Spot Prices

Spot Market & Fundamentals

Copper: As of Thursday, July 10, SMM's national mainstream copper inventories showed a slight 800mt increase from Monday to 143,700mt, with a 11,900mt rise from last Thursday... 》Click for details

Macro Front

Domestic Updates:

[H1 China Auto Production/Sales Exceed 15 Million Units with NEVs Shining] Data released today (July 10) by CAAM shows China's auto market maintained strong momentum in January-June. Production and sales both exceeded 15 million units, achieving YoY growth over 10%. Specifically, NEV production/sales reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million units respectively, up 41.4% and 40.3% YoY. NEVs accounted for 44.3% of total new auto sales. In terms of exports, from January to June this year, automobile exports totaled 3.083 million units, up 10.4% YoY. Among them, NEV exports reached 1.06 million units, surging 75.2% YoY. A relevant official from CAAM stated that specifically, the domestic market showed marked improvement driven by the continuing effectiveness of the automotive trade-in policy, with a YoY growth rate exceeding 10%, providing strong support for the overall growth of the automotive market. NEVs maintained rapid growth momentum, with their market share continuously expanding, leading the accelerated transformation and upgrading of the industry. Looking ahead to H2, the "program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins" will continue to be implemented in an orderly manner. Coupled with the continuous enrichment of new product offerings from enterprises, this will help sustain the steady growth of automobile consumption, ensuring the healthy and stable operation of the automotive industry. (CCTV News)

[Ministry of Natural Resources: 38 New Mineral Sites Discovered in China During H1, Up 31% YoY]On July 10, the Ministry of Natural Resources announced that significant breakthroughs were made in prospecting for important mineral types in H1 2025, with 38 new mineral sites discovered and continued growth in non-oil/gas mineral exploration investment. During H1, China discovered 38 new mineral sites, up 31% YoY, including 25 large and medium-sized sites. Non-oil/gas mineral exploration investment reached 6.693 billion yuan during H1, up 23.9% YoY, maintaining rapid growth momentum. Niu Li, Deputy Director of the Department of Geological Exploration and Management at the Ministry of Natural Resources, indicated that analyzing the investment structure in mineral exploration during H1, social funding reached 3.359 billion yuan, up 28.2% YoY, accounting for 48% of total mineral exploration investment. This demonstrates the growing enthusiasm of enterprises for mineral exploration investments. In the future, we will take the official implementation of the new mineral resources law as an opportunity to strengthen fundamental geological work, intensify the implementation of a new round of strategic mineral exploration breakthrough initiatives, and further enhance national energy and resource security capabilities.

The PBOC conducted 90 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from previous operations. With 57.2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing today, a net injection of 32.8 billion yuan was achieved.

[Shanxi: Accelerating Construction of a New Energy System to Build a Nationally Important Energy and Raw Material Base]According to "Shanxi Release," on July 9, the Standing Committee of the Shanxi Provincial Party Committee convened an expanded meeting to convey and implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speeches and instructions during his field trip to Shanxi. The meeting emphasized the need to steadfastly promote transformational development, firmly shoulder the strategic task entrusted by the CPC Central Committee to build a comprehensive pilot reform zone for the transformation of resource-dependent economies, further unify thinking, maintain resolve, and accelerate the realization of high-quality and sustainable development through transformational efforts. We must prioritize energy transition, firmly shoulder the political responsibility of safeguarding national energy security, deepen the comprehensive reform pilot for energy revolution, accelerate the establishment of a new energy system, and build a high-level nationally important energy and raw material base. We need to steadily promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, focus on the main direction of manufacturing revitalization and upgrading, strategically deploy emerging and future industries based on local conditions while developing new quality productive forces, strengthen support from education, technology, and talent, and gradually form a modern industrial system that reflects Shanxi's characteristics and comparative advantages. We should adhere to moderately diversified development, leverage comparative advantages in energy resources, history, and culture, create a market-oriented, law-based, and international business environment, fully stimulate the vitality of various market entities, and better convert Shanxi's resource advantages into developmental strengths.

►Z25/>The central parity rate of RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market on July 10 was 7.1510 yuan per US dollar.

US dollar update:

As of 11:47, the US dollar index fell 0.1% to 97.4.

Data calendar:

Today will see the release of China's June M2 money supply year-on-year rate, China's January-June social financing scale, China's January-June new RMB loans, US 10-year Treasury auction total amount (July 10), US 10-year Treasury auction accepted yield (July 10), US 10-year Treasury auction high yield (July 10), US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 5, and Germany's final June CPI year-on-year rate. Additionally, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will deliver remarks on the US economy and monetary policy, while the Ministry of Commerce holds its second regular July press conference.

Crude oil update:

Both WTI and Brent crude futures declined, with WTI down 0.12% and Brent down 0.06% as of 11:47Z32/>Spot market overview:

►Weekly copper inventories in major Chinese regions rose slightly by 800 mt【SMM weekly data】

►Copper prices continued to pull back as suppliers refused to budge on prices, but downstream restocking enthusiasm remained muted【SMM South China copper spot】

►Tianjin zinc: Futures rallied but transactions were sluggish【SMM noon review】

►【SMM HRC weekly balance】Demand recovery narrowed HRC inventory decline this week

Other base metals spot noon reviews will be updated shortly - please refresh for details~